photo credit: LATimes.com

Much better, Golden Globes.

Usually….it’s the reverse, but this year I’m happier with Globe nominations than I am with the SAGs. Usually, the SAG voters cheer on the underdogs, throwing their support behind films that you may not have heard of, but can trust will be worth the watch – if only to see quality acting.  This year, the SAG Awards seemed to play favorites in some categories (others were perfectly deserving).

So here’s why the Globes win:

1. Oh, there’s young Hollywood. Shailene Woodley, Rooney Mara, Ryan Gosling, Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Jonah Hill are all highlighted for their performances.

2. Oh, THERE IS MICHAEL FASSBENDER. Sadly, still no Gary Oldman. (Again, you don’t need Leo DiCaprio, Academy.)

3. Could it be true? Did Hollywood really take Judd Apatow’s “more comedy recognition” bitch-fit into consideration?

Because ‘Bridesmaids’ is all over the place. Unfortunately, Melissa McCarthy is the one that deserves the nod, not Kristen Wiig.

On the television side, new names like Episodes and New Girl (oh, ok.) have replaced those staples that were ’30 Rock’ and ‘Big Bang Theory’ for comedy, but no one will be surprised if Tina Fey and Alec Baldwin win again. No one.  There are a few sure things: Kate Winslet will win again. Downton Abbey will win again. And if the Emmy’s are any indication here… the odds will work in favor of Julianne Marguiles.

Personally, I’m thrilled to see Idris Elba, Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Michael Fassbender getting recognition for their respective efforts this year. I’ve lobbied for their talent, and they deserve the accolades (and bigger roles!). I’m NOT happy about the Gary Oldman snub, nor do I think George Clooney should be nominated for best director.  Also surprised to see Nick Nolte and Armei Hammer left off the list.

The category WAY too close to call: Best Actress, Drama. 

But Glenn Close turned into a man, so she will probably win.

And several others could go any which way. But, I’ll try to guess the winners, and in the coming weeks leading up to the big night I’ll explain why these titles each deserve to be nominated (or not).

NOTE: I’ve omitted Best Foreign… though it’ll probably go to Angelina Jolie, Best Original Song, and Best Score – because I have yet to critically watch/listen to all of those nominated.

PINK IS MY WINNER. RED IS  MY UPSET.

MOTION PICTURE

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
‘War Horse’
‘The Ides of March’
‘The Help’
‘Moneyball’
‘Hugo’

BEST PICTURE, COMEDY
‘The Artist’
’50/50′
‘Bridesmaids’
‘My Week With Marilyn’
‘Midnight in Paris’

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
George Clooney in ‘The Descendants’
Brad Pitt in ‘Moneyball’
Leonardo DiCaprio in ‘J.Edgar’
Ryan Gosling in ‘The Ides of March’
Michael Fassbender in ‘Shame’

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
Viola Davis in ‘The Help’
Meryl Streep in ‘The Iron Lady’
Tilda Swinton in ‘We Need to Talk About Kevin’
Rooney Mara in ‘The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo’
Glenn Close in ‘Albert Nobbs’

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY
Jean Dujardin in ‘The Artist’
Brendan Gleeson in ‘The Guard’
Owen Wilson in ‘Midnight in Paris’
Joseph Gorden-Levitt in ’50/50′
Ryan Gosling in ‘Crazy, Stupid, Love’

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY
Michelle Williams, ‘My Week With Marilyn’
Jodie Foster, ‘Carnage’
Kristen Wiig, ‘Bridesmaids’
Charlize Theron, ‘Young Adult’
Kate Winslet, ‘Carnage’

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Albert Brooks, ‘Drive’
Christopher Plummer, ‘Beginners’
Kenneth Branagh, ‘My Week With Marilyn’
Jonah Hill, ‘Moneyball’
Viggo Mortensen, ‘A Dangerous Method’

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo, ‘The Artist’
Octavia Spencer, ‘The Help’
Jessica Chastain, ‘The Help’
Janet McTeer, ‘Albert Nobbs’
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants’

BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, ‘Hugo’
George Clooney, ‘The Ides of March’
Michel Hazanavicius, ‘The Artist’
Alexander Payne, ‘The Descendants’
Woody Allen, ‘Midnight in Paris’

BEST SCREENPLAY
‘Midnight in Paris’
‘The Ides of March’
‘The Artist’
‘The Descendants’
‘Moneyball’

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
‘Rango’
‘The Adventures of Tintin’
‘Puss in Boots’
‘Arthur Christmas’
‘Cars 2′

TELEVISION

BEST TV SERIES, DRAMA
American Horror Story
Boardwalk Empire
Boss
Game of Thrones
Homeland

BEST COMEDY SERIES
New Girl
Enlightened
Episodes
Glee
Modern Family

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Kelsey Grammer, Boss
Jeremy Irons, The Borgias
Damian Lewis, Homeland

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
Claire Danes, Homeland
Mireille Enos, The Killing
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Madeleine Stowe, Revenge
Callie Thorne, Necessary Roughness

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
David Duchovny, Californication
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
Thomas Jane, Hung
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Laura Dern, Enlightened
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Laura Linney, The Big C

BEST TV-MOVIE OR MINISERIES
Mildred Pierce
Too Big Too Fail
Cinema Verite
Downton Abbey
The Hour

BEST ACTOR, TV-MOVIE OR MINISERIES 
William Hurt, Too Big Too Fail
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Idris Elba, Luther
Bill Nighy, Page Eight
Dominic West, Appropriate Adult

SUPPORTING ACTOR, TV-MOVIE OR MINISERIES 
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Paul Giamatti, To Big To Fail
Guy Pearce, Mildred Pierce
Tim Robbins, Cinema Verite
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, TV-MOVIE OR MINISERIES
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Evan Rachel Wood, Mildred Pierce